Time capsule
Out of curiosity I'd like to make a few predictions for the year, then see how accurate they were when I come back from the trip. These are primarily in regards to the economy, as I am currently trying to determine what might be a safe haven for my savings and also because I'm interested in how things are going to play out for the US. My guess is that Obama is going to pass a watered down stimulus package with way too many concessions to the republicans. It will have too many tax breaks, not enough educational funding, too much new highway $ and not enough mass transit and alternative transportation funding. This is easy to predict b/c these are subjective measurements. However, the result on the economy will be mostly short term, resulting in greater US debt, and a spike in inflation beginning sometime in the next 6 months. Inflation will drive up the price of gold, oil and some other commodities. So in a year, I would expect oil to be back near $100 a barrel, and gold to be sky high ($1,500 per ounce?). Declining global oil supplies, due in part to reduced new drilling investment b/c of the current dramatic price drop, will help drive up the price of the barrel. This increase in the price of oil, along with new government alternative energy stimuli, will cause solar stocks to rise once again! I would expect their value to approximately double this year.
On the political front, things are much harder to read. I think Barak Obama wants to change our foreign policy towards a more balanced and diplomatic effort, but I suspect that he might fall into the same traps that previous presidents have. Unless he takes a more controversial (in the US), even-handed, approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict we'll continue to watch as this spreads virally into and destabilizes so many other international relationships. Finally, as it becomes apparent that a global economy may be more fragile and dangerous than predicted and countries like China and India begin to feel the pain from the recession, there will be increased tensions from isolationism, trade imbalances and currency manipulation.
Will there be criminal proceedings to hold some of our previous administration accountable for violating the Geneva conventions and other treaties by torturing? Yes, I think so. At this point, there are too many admissions of guilt and it's been stated by the A.G. that he is opposed to the old policies. Will there be criminal proceedings for unconstitutional domestic surveillance? Yes, I think that there has to be some judicial proceedings on this topic as well. First, there will be a trial which examines the constitutionality of the recently passed FISA bill. Then, if this is repealed, there will be some persons held accountable for violations. Perhaps this won't happen in a year though.
Will there be a zombie apocalypse while we're in Africa? No, won't happen. However, I think that there might be a sweet new movie based on the book 'World War Z' coming out that I dread missing.
So where's the good news? More bikes on the road, more renewable energy, less pollution, more locally grown food, stronger communities, manufacturing moves back to the US due to high transportation costs. Don't know what other surprises and delights might be in store, but life goes on.
