Time capsule
Out of curiosity I'd like to make a few predictions for the year, then see how accurate they were when I come back from the trip. These are primarily in regards to the economy, as I am currently trying to determine what might be a safe haven for my savings and also because I'm interested in how things are going to play out for the US. My guess is that Obama is going to pass a watered down stimulus package with way too many concessions to the republicans. It will have too many tax breaks, not enough educational funding, too much new highway $ and not enough mass transit and alternative transportation funding. This is easy to predict b/c these are subjective measurements. However, the result on the economy will be mostly short term, resulting in greater US debt, and a spike in inflation beginning sometime in the next 6 months. Inflation will drive up the price of gold, oil and some other commodities. So in a year, I would expect oil to be back near $100 a barrel, and gold to be sky high ($1,500 per ounce?). Declining global oil supplies, due in part to reduced new drilling investment b/c of the current dramatic price drop, will help drive up the price of the barrel. This increase in the price of oil, along with new government alternative energy stimuli, will cause solar stocks to rise once again! I would expect their value to approximately double this year.
On the political front, things are much harder to read. I think Barak Obama wants to change our foreign policy towards a more balanced and diplomatic effort, but I suspect that he might fall into the same traps that previous presidents have. Unless he takes a more controversial (in the US), even-handed, approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict we'll continue to watch as this spreads virally into and destabilizes so many other international relationships. Finally, as it becomes apparent that a global economy may be more fragile and dangerous than predicted and countries like China and India begin to feel the pain from the recession, there will be increased tensions from isolationism, trade imbalances and currency manipulation.
Will there be criminal proceedings to hold some of our previous administration accountable for violating the Geneva conventions and other treaties by torturing? Yes, I think so. At this point, there are too many admissions of guilt and it's been stated by the A.G. that he is opposed to the old policies. Will there be criminal proceedings for unconstitutional domestic surveillance? Yes, I think that there has to be some judicial proceedings on this topic as well. First, there will be a trial which examines the constitutionality of the recently passed FISA bill. Then, if this is repealed, there will be some persons held accountable for violations. Perhaps this won't happen in a year though.
Will there be a zombie apocalypse while we're in Africa? No, won't happen. However, I think that there might be a sweet new movie based on the book 'World War Z' coming out that I dread missing.
So where's the good news? More bikes on the road, more renewable energy, less pollution, more locally grown food, stronger communities, manufacturing moves back to the US due to high transportation costs. Don't know what other surprises and delights might be in store, but life goes on.
3 comments:
Hey Jack, good post!
Paul Krugman thinks that the economy is still in for a lot more pain and the bailout was too watered down so I'm not hopeful there either, in the short-term at least.
As far as holding our leaders accountable for their blatant lawlessness, in reading Greenwald it seems like Obama is practically maintaining the Bush policies as government secrecy goes. Didn't the justice department just rule that they agreed with the Bush administration that they didn't need to release information on our "extraordinary rendition" policy, i.e. the most egregious of our torturing? And for FISA remember that Obama capitulated after saying he was against retroactive immunity for the companies that spied on us and then changed his mind and voted for it. So I'm not as hopeful that anyone will be held accountable for their criminality. Laws don't apply to those with the most power.
MGA? Matt? Hey buddy. Wow, glad to hear that you read Glenn Greenwald too- he's the man. I agree with you about Obama's questionable approach to these crimes, but thankfully the Govt has three branches! There have been some recent developments (which Glenn chronicles) in the legislative and judicial branches that suggest there will be a fact finding commission by the legislature which may inevitably lead to criminal proceedings by the justice dept! I think that Obama might be a great president, but at times he is either unwilling or unable to go that extra yard. He certainly needs and perhaps sincerely desires that these other branches step up and assume some responsibility.
jack we have skype now very excited to see you not happy you are not looking like the kid we know haha you be carefull in that jungle . we will be watching you and send our love judy and paul
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